You’re sitting in your living room trying to make a few bucks by guessing the date Israel will next strike Lebanon. Meanwhile, someone with inside knowledge of that date is planning to use it to take your money. Meanwhile, the prediction markets are taking a cut of the transaction and using it to buy lobbyists to keep oversight down, brand partnerships to make them look legitimate, and advertising to keep you gambling. Meanwhile, someone in Lebanon is sitting in their apartment hoping their building doesn’t explode.