Thoughts tagged "Polymarket"

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Bill Ackman suggests Eric Adams place Polymarket bet and then drop out of mayoral race

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman suggests Eric Adams drop out of the New York mayoral race, but first "place a large bet on Andrew Cuomo and then announce your withdrawal from the race" to "fund [his] future".

He writes: "There is no insider trading on Polymarket." Americans are currently prohibited from trading on Polymarket (though Polymarket makes only perfunctory attempts to block it, which are widely circumvented.)

By "no insider trading on Polymarket" he likely is referring to the fact that the SEC can't bring insider trading charges because Polymarket contracts are not securities. That doesn't mean trading on insider information would be legal (or ethical), though.

Screenshot of the end of a long tweet: The mirror does not lie. Eric, please take a close and hard look. And to fund your future, you could place a large bet on Andrew Cuomo and then announce your withdrawal from the race. There is no insider trading on Polymarket. [Screenshot of Polymarket showing Zohran Mamdani with a large lead of 82% in a bet on the outcome of the NYC mayoral election, with Andrew Cuomo behind at around 15%]

The betting platforms can't open markets on Trump's death for obvious reasons, but Kalshi just so happened to open up a "Trump out as President" market on Saturday

Kalshi prediction market for "Trump out as President this year?". It opened at around 5% on August 30, raising to around 10% by September 1

Polymarket opened their own on September 1.

Polymarket prediction market for "Trump out as President this year?". It opened at around 10% on September 1, hovering between 7 and ~11.5% since

Unlike Polymarket, on Kalshi these markets do not resolve to "yes" if the person in question dies (they settle at the last traded price). I suspect many bettors don't read the fine print, though.

Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket, btw. (This is deeply weird for all of the many reasons having Don Jr. as an adviser is deeply weird, and also because the companies are the two major competitors in the prediction markets space)