Thoughts tagged "prediction markets"

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“It’s honestly been eye opening (in a bad way) to see how special interests work in our system” says the Head of Politics at Kalshi, which pays Donald Trump Jr. to sit on its advisory board and has spent over a million in lobbying over the past ~year. The government has just filed a lawsuit to intervene to protect Kalshi from several state regulators.

It’s honestly been eye opening (in a bad way) to see how special interests work in our system. Kalshi and other regulated prediction markets are better for consumers and threaten gambling monopolies. So casinos take their profits (which come directly from people’s losses) and use it to fund the state’s litigation to try and shut down their competition. This is part of why so many people believe the government doesn’t work for them anymore

The CFTC (the US commodities regulator) has just sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois for their efforts to "outlaw, regulate, or otherwise restrain" prediction markets like Kalshi.

This is another escalation by newly appointed CFTC chair Mike Selig (and sole Commissioner at the agency), who has taken it upon himself to assert the CFTC's sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Recently, the CFTC filed a supporting brief in Crypto​.com's lawsuit against Nevada.

As I wrote then, "Since the CFTC has filed no enforcement actions against prediction markets after embracing the sector following Trump’s election, Selig’s jurisdictional claim seems designed to shield the sector rather than regulate it."

Nevertheless, the CFTC's press release accompanying these lawsuits claims that state regulatory intervention could result in "poorer consumer protection and increased risk of fraud and manipulation".

The betting platforms can't open markets on Trump's death for obvious reasons, but Kalshi just so happened to open up a "Trump out as President" market on Saturday

Kalshi prediction market for "Trump out as President this year?". It opened at around 5% on August 30, raising to around 10% by September 1

Polymarket opened their own on September 1.

Polymarket prediction market for "Trump out as President this year?". It opened at around 10% on September 1, hovering between 7 and ~11.5% since

Unlike Polymarket, on Kalshi these markets do not resolve to "yes" if the person in question dies (they settle at the last traded price). I suspect many bettors don't read the fine print, though.

Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket, btw. (This is deeply weird for all of the many reasons having Don Jr. as an adviser is deeply weird, and also because the companies are the two major competitors in the prediction markets space)