Activity tagged "prediction markets"

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“It’s honestly been eye opening (in a bad way) to see how special interests work in our system” says the Head of Politics at Kalshi, which pays Donald Trump Jr. to sit on its advisory board and has spent over a million in lobbying over the past ~year. The government has just filed a lawsuit to intervene to protect Kalshi from several state regulators.

It’s honestly been eye opening (in a bad way) to see how special interests work in our system. Kalshi and other regulated prediction markets are better for consumers and threaten gambling monopolies. So casinos take their profits (which come directly from people’s losses) and use it to fund the state’s litigation to try and shut down their competition. This is part of why so many people believe the government doesn’t work for them anymore
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The CFTC (the US commodities regulator) has just sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois for their efforts to "outlaw, regulate, or otherwise restrain" prediction markets like Kalshi.

This is another escalation by newly appointed CFTC chair Mike Selig (and sole Commissioner at the agency), who has taken it upon himself to assert the CFTC's sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Recently, the CFTC filed a supporting brief in Crypto​.com's lawsuit against Nevada.

As I wrote then, "Since the CFTC has filed no enforcement actions against prediction markets after embracing the sector following Trump’s election, Selig’s jurisdictional claim seems designed to shield the sector rather than regulate it."

Nevertheless, the CFTC's press release accompanying these lawsuits claims that state regulatory intervention could result in "poorer consumer protection and increased risk of fraud and manipulation".

Read:
“How Prediction Markets Turned Life Into a Dystopian Gambling Experiment”.
Brian Phillips. Published .
You’re sitting in your living room trying to make a few bucks by guessing the date Israel will next strike Lebanon. Meanwhile, someone with inside knowledge of that date is planning to use it to take your money. Meanwhile, the prediction markets are taking a cut of the transaction and using it to buy lobbyists to keep oversight down, brand partnerships to make them look legitimate, and advertising to keep you gambling. Meanwhile, someone in Lebanon is sitting in their apartment hoping their building doesn’t explode.