“It’s honestly been eye opening (in a bad way) to see how special interests work in our system” says the Head of Politics at Kalshi, which pays Donald Trump Jr. to sit on its advisory board and has spent over a million in lobbying over the past ~year. The government has just filed a lawsuit to intervene to protect Kalshi from several state regulators.
One of the government's attorneys in the CFTC's lawsuit against the states who've sued Kalshi was a lawyer for Kalshi in its lawsuit against the CFTC in 2023. He joined the DOJ in February 2025.
The CFTC (the US commodities regulator) has just sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois for their efforts to "outlaw, regulate, or otherwise restrain" prediction markets like Kalshi.
This is another escalation by newly appointed CFTC chair Mike Selig (and sole Commissioner at the agency), who has taken it upon himself to assert the CFTC's sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Recently, the CFTC filed a supporting brief in Crypto.com's lawsuit against Nevada.
As I wrote then, "Since the CFTC has filed no enforcement actions against prediction markets after embracing the sector following Trump’s election, Selig’s jurisdictional claim seems designed to shield the sector rather than regulate it."
Nevertheless, the CFTC's press release accompanying these lawsuits claims that state regulatory intervention could result in "poorer consumer protection and increased risk of fraud and manipulation".
Odds favor a Democratic rise in Congress next year, when lawmakers who've begun going after firms such as Kalshi and Polymarket may have greater sway.
Coinbase is accused of holding the cryptocurrency industry hostage over stablecoin rewards, prediction markets face an onslaught of opposition, and a Stand With Crypto poll can’t even get enthusiasm from its own activists
some Coinbase customers are horrified that the Coinbase app is encouraging them to gamble
they're so close
You’re sitting in your living room trying to make a few bucks by guessing the date Israel will next strike Lebanon. Meanwhile, someone with inside knowledge of that date is planning to use it to take your money. Meanwhile, the prediction markets are taking a cut of the transaction and using it to buy lobbyists to keep oversight down, brand partnerships to make them look legitimate, and advertising to keep you gambling. Meanwhile, someone in Lebanon is sitting in their apartment hoping their building doesn’t explode.
Terra’s Do Kwon gets 15 years, crypto banks get the green light, and the Trump family’s crypto grift expands even as one of their treasury companies goes off the rails
Prediction markets once lived on the academic fringe. Now they’re trading billions on politics, sports, and celebrity gossip — under rules never designed for retail gamblers.